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That sounds reasonable as well.

I think the reason people should temper their expectations is that $349 and $399 are still REALLY expensive in an economy that's not all that great. PS4 had the Destiny bundle that got a lot of potential buyers to jump early, and X1 has had every kind of promotion imaginable trying to buff sales. Both of those situations probably bumped a notable portion of buyers forward to Sept/Oct, and it will hurt them in Nov/Dec to some extent.