One prediction even Pachter cannot get wrong!

[binary solo]

Farsala said:

binary solo said:

 

Well yes BUT, this was a throw away prediction behind a much more significant and less likely to come true prediction: that CoD:AW sales > CoD: Ghosts.

If US pre-orders are to be believed CoD:AW is more likely to continue the franchise's decline in sales than to reverse the trend that started with BO2.

Vgchartz preorder charts are probably even less believable then Pachter. And that is really saying something.

 

CoD is an install base type of franchise imo. Should do better as the install base grows. Some games can defy that rule, but surely not CoD.

In theory the install base for CoD hasn't changed, it's only spread across more platforms. CoD:G on the Xbox family is at slightly over 11 million. Blops2 on 360 got to 13 million. If you consider the Xbox family that's a drop of 2 million. However we know for a fact that some 360 owners have flipped to PS4. So perhaps some of the drop is compensated by a rise in the PS family.

CoD:G on PS family is 11.6 million. Blops2 on PS3 also hit 13 million. The PS family likely has a larger install base than what it seems because of the 360-->PS4 jumpers. But still we have a 1.4 million drop within the PS family.

The fact that PS family > Xbox family is significant for CoD because that's the first time since the 7th gen started and even though it is a tiny difference it's actually the case within both generations. However the drop in the Xbox family is no where near compensated by a corresponding rise in the PS family. The 8th gen is collectively not pulling its weight in terms of maintaining CoD sales. Though that is particularly true in the case of PS4 with nearly double the install base but only 30% higher sales than Xb one.

My prediction for CoD:AW is a significant decrease in sales on 7th gen, and increase in sales on 8th gen. But the 7th gen decrease will be larger than the 8th gen increase.