Looking at what the X1 has to offer next year, I'm hardly convinced that Microsoft is "going in hard". Yes, there is likely more games in store and MS just haven't revealed them yet. However, Sony has already done that since Gamescom and announced even more games in Pre-TGS.
There are two major problems with the X1's 2015 exclusive lineup, so far: lack of diversity and consolidation of release dates to holiday season. Phil Spencer is right that you have to bring your A game into holiday season, but you also have to bring it during the first 8 months. It is because of this that the PS4 widened the sales gap this year. Halo 5 is undeniably huge and will sell more than Uncharted 4. However, even a huge game like Halo 5 cannot cancel out the deficit from January to August. It is important to sell consistently well all year around.
The lack of diversity is also concerning. Fable Legends, Scalebound, Phantum Dust, Halo 5, and Quantum Break, they all fall under the shooter and action categories. Great for gamers whose favorite genres are action and shooters, but bad for those who have other tastes. While the western market is primarily fans of these two genres, there are western gamers who also like platformers, western and Japanese RPGs, hack n' slash, survival/horror, and sandbox. Looking at the PS4's 2015 lineup, you see Uncharted 4, Bloodborne, Wild, The Order: 1886, Rime, Everybody's Gone to the Rapture, The Tomorrow Children, Until Dawn, Disgaea 5, Dragon Quest Heroes, Ys, God Eater 2, Persona 5, MLB 15: The Show, and Let it Die. Shadow of the Beast, N++, and Deep Down are also in the mix though they don't have general release dates yet. And nevermind the several timed exclusives the PS4 will be getting, too, like The Witness, Hellblade, The Vanishing of Ethan Carter, Abzu, and No Man's Sky, and the obligatory remasters like the Uncharted Trilogy Remastered Edition and Beyond: Two Souls Director's Cut. Will all these games sell like gangbusters? No, but the important takeaway here is that they appeal to a very wide demographic as opposed to a narrow one.
