Eh... well for it to be by 2018 like people think... it has about 30 million to go. So it would have to outsell it by about 8 million this year (it's up 3 million or so) and then about 8 million for three years. Don't really see that happening. Even if 3DS sales drop to about 8 million per year, PS4 would still have to hit about 16 million a year. Not utterly impossible, but that'd be way way more successful than the 360 or PS3 were. Can't see that happening unless Microsoft just gave up. Even if that happened, that'd still be a difficult task. It'll probably do about 12-13 million this year I think.
It also depends when Nintendo releases a 3DS successor. I'm surprised they haven't really done so already, but it should definitely be here within two years at the latest. I'd we'll see new hardware in the middle of 2016. Nintendo handhelds tend to have a decent tail life. So all said and done, the 3DS should end at 70 millionish.
So... I feel like maybe 2019 or 2020 depending on how things go. Of course, if Microsoft and Nintendo get their shit together, it may not happen until later than that, if at all.
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