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I would say mid 2015 because the xbox one and wii u have a 2.9 million advantage when combined. So far this year through the first ~40 weeks, the PS4 has averaged about 65k more than Xbox One and wii u combined per week. At this rate it would take about 44 weeks (2.9 million/65k advance per week)  for the PS4 to achieve 50% market share which should put us smack in the middle of 2015.