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I think Xbox plus Wii U will comfortably outsell the PS4 this holiday but that doesn't speak for what will happen throughout the next 6 years. Having said that I don't think its a given that the Ps4 will hold 50% market share. The wii U will do around 18-25m. The Xbox will do another 40m-60m (it too early to say otherwise) and I don't actually expect the PS4 to do more then 130m. So I could see it being a bit less then 50%, it all depends on how big the Xbox's long term recovery is.