| Aielyn said: At the bottom of the page on that japanltdranking site... "The figures in this website are based only on the reports available through their Famitsu magazines and websites since 1996. For that reason, sales information for some games is not available or is incomplete." In other words, they can only track the data for which numbers are given. And that means that once it drops out of the top 30, it stops tracking. Considering that Wonderful 101 has been tracked as roughly 500 per week more recently, and Famitsu cuts out, currently, at about 1500. Let's use 1500 as a "base point" for a minute. Of course, doing this only gives a total of around 11-12k, so clearly they're getting more than that... except, there's no proper indication of where they're getting their numbers from. And with no details available to compare against (that is, I can't look at their weekly numbers, and compare against available data), I have no idea how accurate the numbers they provide actually are. For all I know, they could be only up to the last update... and if Famitsu only provides updates beyond the top 30 once a year, then you'd expect their numbers to match up with Famitsu's yearly update. Care to guess where VGChartz had W101 at the end of 2013? |
But then you're saying you're placing your faith in the tracking of VGChartz for anything further:
http://www.vgchartz.com/methodology.php
Our methodology supposedly polls end users and retail channels combined with information from manufacturers. Given that every week, Japan sales seem to be a split between Media Create & Famitsu, do you believe this is actually true? And if so, where do you believe the accuracy in VGChartz numbers beyond the top 50 in Japan comes from?
I agree there's a discrepancy between when a game drops out of Media Create/Dengeki top 50 (which tracks slightly longer) and when it finally stops selling, but that's my point - VGC constantly overestimates this for some games, and then completely abandons it for other games.
Additionally, the bolded is wrong. Wonderful 101 spent two weeks in the Famitsu top 30, dropping out at 10,126 sales:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=79932829&postcount=1
24./10. [WIU] The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo) {2013.08.24} (¥6.830) - 3.463 / 10.126 <20-40%> (-48%)
This correlates with the database at Geimin for 2013 sales:
http://geimin.net/da/db/2013_ne_fa/index.php
| 270 | WiiU | The Wonderful 101 (The Wonderful One-O-One) | Nintendo | 2013/08/24 | 10 126 lines | 10 126 lines | 6663 lines |
According to Dengeki, the game had fallen out of the top 50 by its third week, thus selling < 1500 copies that week (and presumably all subsequent weeks):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=81401889&postcount=502
Media Create had it at 14k by the end of 2013 (and they track a top 50, rather than a top 30):
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=876551
400. [WIU] The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo) {2013.08.24} (¥6.930) - 14.134 - 14.134
Where have the extra 17k sales come from? I couldn't actually tell you - I assume some kind of Famitsu top 1000 which I'm having difficulty finding (so anyway, maybe not!)
Regardless, however the tracking works out, we can assume these copies were basically given away for peanuts:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=125857433&postcount=83
In the nearest bomba bin, games that haven't sold their first week shipment:
[WIU] The Wonderful 101 {2013-08-24} => 15,673
If you add up the Media Create sold through + the copies sitting in a bomba bin, you get: 29,807.
Famitsu's number for copies sold? 27,028. So it seems like the game was just discounted to clear overshipped stock.
Are you telling me that we're seriously to believe that despite the fact that the game was humongously overshipped at launch, retailers proceeded to order a further ~ 23k+ copies to sell at incredibly discounted prices? Seems absolutely bizarre given that the game clearly isn't selling in any noteable quantities and how strong the used game market is in Japan.
(Please also note that on the bomba bin list there are multiple Nintendo-published WiiU titles such as Game & Wario; Ninja Gaiden 3; Wind Waker HD etc. Nintendo aren't immune from overshipping games which have no legs.)
Which brings me back to my point about Bayonetta 2:
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=131451053&postcount=1
03./00. [WIU] Bayonetta 2 (Nintendo) {2014.09.20} (¥8.316) - 33.114 / NEW <40-60%>
Even if it ends up at decent numbers, are those decent numbers going to be a success or are they going to be clearing inventory and no further shipments? Bayonetta's situation is less precarious than W101's (20-40% sellthrough) but judging by normal sales curves, we'll likely only see minor further shipments possibly for the game. Nothing substantial, and likely not a whole lot at full price.
And is that really what Nintendo want?
| Aielyn said: Meanwhile, the point to be drawn isn't one of direct comparison of actual numbers, but to emphasise that there are more factors than just week 1 sales at play, especially on Nintendo systems where legs tend to be longer (you can argue the exact extent as much as you want, but I've never heard anyone assert otherwise). |
I think this is the whole problem I have with your argument. Nintendo-developed games have legs, particularly from key, historic franchises. A second party title published by Nintendo has no real guarantee of legging it. See examples such as: Captain Rainbow; The Last Story; Fatal Frame IV etc. Or any of the WiiU games which ended up in bomba bins from the list above.
And in addition to that, it swings back to how long VGC want to continue tracking its sales or not.
Legs depends on so many more factors, not least - target audience; genre and console. And I don't think Bayonetta 2 has any of those 3 things in its favour.
I do understand the arguments you're putting forward. But I just feel like it's wishful thinking to spin what could potentially be a poor performance into something good.
Nintendo thrive on selling things like Mario Kart alongside every console they sell for years afterwards. They don't thrive overshipping Wonderful 101 and having retailers discount all their copies after 2 months and make no further shipments. And I haven't seen anything about what Bayonetta is which suggests it's going to be the former, rather than the latter.
| Aielyn said: By the way, regarding Dragon Quest X... curious how the base package only tracks at 84k, yet the "expansion pack only", where the "only" implies it doesn't come with the base pack, tracks at 130k. |
Click the little "+" sign at the left of the game. DQX expansion has digital sales added (pretty substantial ones). DQX vanilla does not because it's from before Famitsu started tracking digital sales.
