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The only part that's holding back my confidence is that his actions and behavior don't quote befit the average player in his position.
If he was the nuker, I would think he'd simply try to go with the flow and let wright get lynched.

The counter-argument to that though, is that spurge isn't the average player. He's overconfident, explosively jumpy, and often counterintuitive. He also acts in very odd ways.

For instance, on day 3 he said something like
"So we know that this game, if a player disappears after being questioned then they are scum"
This is such an out of place statement of meta it begs to reason what the motivation is behind it.