Oil, when will it run out?

[Desroko]

I think the real problem is not that we'll run out - like HappySquirrel, I think we'll move away from an oil-based economy before that hapens.

The problem is that it's unlikely that this will happen without serious economic damage first. I.e., we'll reach a point where the cost of oil is prohibitively expensive, but there won't be sufficient alternative-energy infrastructure in place to make the switch without a lot of hardship.

This scenario is likely to happen if we keep to anything close to our current pace, but man-made disasters could speed the process considerably. I recently read a book on Saudi Arabia which estimated that single atacks on key points in the Saudi oil industry, or coordinated attacks on several points, could slow the production long enough to cause a huge spike in oil prices. He also outlined a doomsday scenario, wherein the world economy would essentially collapse. It's significantly less plausible than the other possibilities, but plausible enough to be scary, given Saudi Arabia's instability.

Continued development of the Central Asian fields will alleviate this somewhat, but I'm afraid will take a sharp kick in the ass before the world changes its ways. We're just not smart enough to plan ahead.