How much will Mario Kart Wii sell first week?

[Oyvoyvoyv]

How much do you think MKWii will sell in its first week in Japan, Europe and America?

Japan first.

Week 1/week 2

SMK: 392/261K

MK64: 308/371K

MK:SC: 219/97K

MK: DD: 201K/73K

MK:DS: 231/157

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Attachment rates

SMK: 392K with 5.4M SNES = 7.2%. Total SNES = roughly the same as total Wiis, so fair comparison.

MK64: 304K with 1.4M N64 = 21.7%. Launched 14th Dec, so Christmas boost, also very few N64 so easier to get high attachment rate, true attachment rate closer to 10%.

Mario Kart Double Dash: 201K with 2.6M GC. 7.7%. Half as many GCs, so easier to get high AR, true is closer to 5%

Mario Kart DS: 231K with 4.6M DS. 5.0%. Close to number of Wiis, fair comparison.

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Overall, the attachment rate seems to lie around 7%. With 5.7M Wiis, 399K is a rough estimate. As later titles have had lower, at roughly 5%, that would be 285K, so 340K. +/-50K would be a safe bet, if you ask me.

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Europe:

As there isn't a lot of data, I'm skipping right to AR.

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Attachment rate:

Mario Kart DS: 145K with 2.4M DS. Attachment rate: 6%. As there are a lot less sales, true AR is about 4%.

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Total sales of earlier titles:

Total sales of earlier titles have been around 2M in Europe. (Except for SMK, but it doesn't really matter. DS is at 3.45) and that with much smaller install bases. Usually Wii titles have had the same opening weeks as their preccessors, but with bigger legs. Therefore we can estimate the % of the total sales to be opening week sales, and make a very brief estimate on first week. As most earlier titles on Nintendo platforms had roughly 1/4 of total to be first week, that would be 500K.

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Overall: 4% of 7.5M is 300k. My other brief estimate says 500K. Although the AR is more reliable, I'll still say 400K.

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America: yet to come, will be released later

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Total sales:

Europe: 350-450K
Japan: 300-400K

Total sales (currently without USA):  650-850K

 

Now your turn to analyse your way to sales. (Or as most people, vomit a number)