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I think it's going to be close. Smash Bros. is a system seller. They get that out in time for Christmas and it will move a ton of new consoles. Bayonetta 2 also has a lot of hype and will sell a lot of copies, though it won't have that big of an impact on console sales.

Halo would also be considered a system seller, but I doubt how much a remastered collection will do. Halo 5 isn't coming until next year, so I'm not expecting a huge bump for the Master Chief Collection. Xbone really doesn't have any big games this Christmas. Sunset Overdrive is more of a mid-tier game. Forza Horizon isn't going to sell consoles because Forza diehards already purchased it for Forza 5 last year.