I don't know, here in UK the 360 version has a RRP of £39.99 while the ps3 version has one of £44.99. Also, many retailers such as GAME are offering people who pre-order the game 500 live points. HMV is actually offering 1000 which is just crazy. I suspect Microsoft has made deals with these companies but the incentives for those people who have both consoles to buy the 360 version is just huge. That's not to say the ps3 will not benefit from GTA because it will but i don't think it will benefit "alot" more.
I think your reasonsing is for the PS3 console alone.
-Both consoles will offer the game on one disc so Blu-ray will not have an effect on the consumer.
-More reliable hardware may be an issue for some who have suffered the most from the RROD but for those with only the 360 then i think they will just get the 360 version. But there is definatley a belief among people that the ps3 is far superior than the 360 so those people will buy the ps3 for the game as this is the game they've been waiting for.
-The dualshock controller being more familar will have little to do with it because the controls for the new game will be totally different than previous games and the xbox controller is equally as good and will infact be more familar now for all those people who already have a 360 and are fans of previous GTA's.
- Free online, again may have an effect but this is becoming the Live v PSN debate again.
The ps3 will not move hardware for these reasons. If it does move a substantial amount of hardware then it is because alot of playstaion fans are still out there who have yet to buy a playstation 3 and have been waiting for this title before they do so.
The incentives are there for dual owners of consoles to get it for the 360 and for 360 owners who are unsure if they should swap their console for the ps3 to keep their 360. I think this is what Microsoft is worrying about. There was a risk of people jumping ship and hence all the deals they have made to ensure they kept this sensative gorup of gamers to buy the game on their system.
