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A couple of comments.

Minecraft sells for $6.99 on the iOS AppStore. It sells for $19.99 on consoles. It sells for $26.95 on PC.

On April 29, 2014, the sales breakdown was 21 million on iOS and Android, 13.5 million on consoles, and 14 million on PCs. Assuming these were all bought at current prices (which I know they weren't, as you could have purchased it much cheaper on PC during the beta, for example), the average price is $16.38. And that doesn't take into account what the platform holders get (for example, Apple gets 30% of a sale from the AppStore). Assuming Microsoft were able to keep all of the money from an average sale, they would need to make 152+ million additional sales. This is an additional 3x the existing sales. I don't see this as being likely...

http://www.polygon.com/2014/4/29/5665834/minecraft-sales-15m-copies-pc

What about DLC? Licensing? These would also add to Minecraft's income. Well, I found another interesting article. Mojang made $326 million last year, for all of 2013. Given that number, and assuming it stays roughly constant for the next while, it would take Microsoft 7.7 years to make back their money. Still think this was a good investment?

http://www.gamespot.com/articles/minecraft-maker-mojang-made-a-whopping-326m-last-year/1100-6418397/

And this is where it gets interesting.

The article points out that out of the $326 million that Mojang made last year, only $128 million was actually profit, while approximately $128 million went to a SEPARATE company for licensing fees, a company owned by Mojang co-owner and Minecraft creator Marcus "notch" Persson,

Based on profit, again, assuming it stays constant, it will actually take Microsoft 19.5 years to make back their money.

I am assuming that Marcus will keep earning money through royalties, since none of the articles mentions that Microsoft also bought the rights to the other company...