The Xbox One Is Going To Be Just Fine. Playstation 4 Will Not Dominate The Market In The Long Run.

[Zanten]

Jega said:

Zanten said:

Okay, let's try this. Domination is a pretty... Vague term. 2:1 ratio is pretty dominant, but not as dominant as, say, the PS2 was. So, end of generation, what do you think the global gap between the two will be? What, for you, would dominance be?

If ps4 is the leader at the end of the generation, I see no more than a 10 million gap between the Ps4 and Xbox One.

.....and I consider a 20 million lead dominating not a 10 million lead.

But what if the Xbox One sells, say, a hundred million, and the PS4 a hundred and twenty? Are you saying that would be more dominant than if the Xbox One sold five million, and the PS4 sold twenty? The larger the install bases get, the less the 'gap' matters, which is why the current numbers are pretty worrisome for Microsoft. They're not just concerned that 'Oh, Sony sold five million more than us.' They're concerned that 'Shit, Sony's selling them twice as fast as us.'

But let's assume that the lower-end console, in this scenario the Xbox One, sells the same as the Xbox 360, 80 million. To reach that 20 million gap, the PS4 only has to outsell it by a ratio of 1.25:1, which is WAY lower than it's been outselling it since launch. So even if at the end of the generation, the Xbox 360 sells 80 million consoles, and the PS4 sells 100 million, then we can say it's dominating, even though it's technically outsold the Xbox One much, much slower than it has this year?

It also brings us back to the last thread you made. When you theorized that the reason the PS4 was selling more was because PS3 owners were more bored with their seventh gen consoles, and Xbox 360 owners were more satisfied. Kind of figure that's why you expect the Xbox One to catch up, you think all the Xbox owners are just so darned happy with their 360s, and all the PS3 owners are desperate for something new. Before I start picking at that, I'd just like to ask if that is still your position, or if you've since changed your mind about that.