The Xbox One Is Going To Be Just Fine. Playstation 4 Will Not Dominate The Market In The Long Run.

[Zanten]

Jega said:

Zanten said:

Jega said:

CGI-Quality said:

 

You'd have to explain how the X1 can even take back the US, at this point. One game isn't going to do it (and it just had an exclusive bundle for the week - hardly something to expect a repeat of next week). Sony will probably remain price competitive, so that won't be enough, either. We've already seen previous explanations as to why it would happen and none of those got it anywhere close. Thus, it's going to take an explanation of something other than wishful thinking for: "Xbox is gonna take the US back I am sure of it" to make sense.

Next, the PS4 is already dominating. It's currently 2:1 (and the X1 loses weekly by upwards of 3:1, sometimes). Very few expect a domination like the PS2 era, but it doesn't need to hit that to be dominant.

CGI CGI why do you and some people think I am talking about now.

I don't see the Playstation 4 outselling Xbox One in America for this entire generation. I predict it will be just like last gen where

Xbox 360 dominated the PS4 in america.

Now I am not saying the PS4 cannot win in america. I am just saying I don't see it despite the fact that the PS4 is outselling the xbox one

in america right now. That is all I am saying.

I don't see the ps4 holding on to the lead. And I predict november will be the month the xbox one finally outsells the ps4 in america 

mainly because of call of duty.

Once again I could be dead wrong, but that is what I think will happen.

But again, though, why? I think the Xbox One has a decent chance (well, better a chance than anywhere else) of catching up to the PS4, even outselling it to a degree, but what you should keep in mind is that the Xbox 360 and PS3 drew level with each other globally only because the Xbox 360 was massively winning in the U.S., and substantially leading in the U.K. Heck, even those big victories, and an over 30 month NPD win streak for the 360, didn't keep the PS3 globally outselling the Xbox 360 month after month, until it had gobbled up the 360's initial lead. Keep in mind, the fact that they're about equal now is only due to a quirk of timing; had the gen been two or three years shorter, the 360 would be the clear winner. Had it been two or three years longer, the PS3 would be the clear winner. It just so happens we're at a point where they're intersecting, before the PS3's higher momentum carried it past the 360 altogether.

Dominating the PS4 the same way the 360 dominated the PS3 would require not only a truly massive boost, (which Call of Duty and Halo MCC may indeed provide,) but for the PS4 not to be boosted at all during the holiday season, which is just silly. Keep in mind, the Xbox One could match the PS4's sales in the U.S., even outsell it by 10-20%, and still get dominated globally. It could completely DOUBLE the PS4's sales in the U.S., and still have the global gap get wider and wider in favor of the PS4. The only way we can see the Xbox One even start closing the global gap is if its baseline sales TRIPLE, with no boost whatever to the PS4's baseline, and even then it would take months, if not years, to close the five million gap.

Also, when you say outselling the PS4 in America, do you mean 'They will finally win a month,' or do you think November is when the total Xbox One U.S. sales will be higher than the total PS4 sales? Because that seems like a pretty massive long shot. o.o

That is why I predict by holiday 2016, it won't happen in 6 months not even a year. 

I think the Xbox One can win November and December. Come January 2015 the PS4 could take the lead back for maybe 3 or 4 months but

The Xbox One will regain the momentum for the rest of the year.

Once again I am just talking about America.

 Let me put it this way. Your idea of the Xbox One closing the global gap requires, obviously, the Xbox One to start outselling the PS4 in global numbers, either by a GIANT number one month, or a more reasonably number for multiple months, right? So, obviously, you expect the Xbox One's sales in the U.S. to triple those of the PS4 on a regular, constant basis, since as I mentioned, it is the only conceivable way the Xbox One can accomplish higher global sales. Even if the Xbox One sells twice as many U.S. consoles as PS4, the global gap will not shrink, it will in fact get bigger in the PS4's favor. So you need Xbox One sales- and I mean, every single month- to triple those of the PS4 to even start closing the global gap.

Call of Duty will not accomplish this. It WILL give a big boost, a very big boost, but it won't increase the baseline, because there's a finite number of Call of Duty fanatics who base their console choice solely on which has earlier DLC. =P Even if Advanced Warfare brings those people over (which I doubt,) you'll see a big, big surge in sales on Advanced Warfare's release, before dropping back to normal levels. Same goes with Halo; big boost, but finite number of fans. The same can be said for ANY pre-established franchise, on both sides, as the people who upgrade 'Just For This Franchise' are relatively limited compared to those who look at the wider picture.

You made an excellent point when you said that the diehard fans only account for so many sales. But your mistake is assuming that the console-neutral, or outright casual, people will flock to the Xbox One in numbers larger than the PS4. Right now, PS4 has the better PR, the better image, is being seen as the 'winner' by anyone who does even a tiny bit of research, and if you have no personal attachment or prior interest in Xbox OR Playstation franchises, then you're more likely to go with whatever side has more raw content. Which, right now, is Playstation. Going Xbox is literally going AGAINST the consumer 'flow,' and is most often done because people simply have more interest in Xbox's lineup of exclusives, their IPs and franchises... which is only a judgement call one can make if they've already played them.

And your last thread, about how more Playstation owners were bored with their PS3s, and more Xbox 360 owners were satisfied, was ridiculous. =P Of the two consoles, the PS3 wasn't the one whose exclusive titles dried up to the same three franchises over four years.