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Vena said: I work with statistics and raw experimental data, I never give 100% unless its the latter where I have physical things to present. I give estimations, predictions, and formulae from which conclusions can be drawn and then verified experimentally. You're not really proving anything at the moment other than the fact that the PS4 launched strong while the Wii performed more consistently... which is their point, actually. They are saying, very specifically, that the strong launch and subsequent inconsistent and sliding month-to-month sales (barring out outlier and Destiny outlier next month) are a very, very bad sign of a front, loaded console that is not actually doing as well as people think it is doing... This is literally impossible to deny as its very much in the numbers you posted. Trajectories paint a good picture. Trajectories can also be wrong... but then normally that isn't the case because a trajectory exists for a reason. Your own data is especially damning if you compare 2007/2014 only. |
Sales don't like that at all... you have a potential consumers userbase for determined price point... so if your potential userbase at $400 is 15 million then more you sell in the first months and get close to that will result in less sales in the next months... the opposite happens too when less you sell in the first months give you more room to sell in the next months.
Said that you can have two types of products that reach the final lifetime numbers.
1) Front-loaded that means it sell more in the first month but get a avg. low numbers in the next months to reach 10m
2) More constant that menas it sell more constantly month after month until reach these same 10m
Translating to the PS4 and Wii cases.
PS4 is font-loaded and sold a a lot in the first two months and after sold a low avg sales to reach 10m
Wii is constant and sold a high avg every month to reach the same 10m
What could happened if PS4 was not front-loaded? Probabilly it will sell high in the month avg.
What could happened if Wii was font-loaded? Probabilly it will sell low in the month avg.
But at the end both reached the potential consumers related to that price point.
The issue is that the Wii had a price way lower than PS4... so Wii had a lot more potential consumers to this price point while PS4 not... but that create another point PS4 have more room of price points to attrack more consumers than Wii had and everytime you deal with you price point or cut it the potential consumers will increase a lot and the sales will go up too making the month avg. high again.
There is no brainner here.
PS4 can sell on pair or better than Wii in the Holiday... it can sell on par or better than Wii in 2015... it can lack in avg. montly sales compared with Wii but compensate in some key releases months... it can get on fire in sales when reach $300, $200, price point to make it sell monthly avg. way better than Wii did after it 4th/5th year.
Who knows? I know Wii sales won't change but the PS4 can happen anything.
For exemple... I don't tink PS4 will be lack in sales this Holidays compared with Wii if Sony bundled GTAV... it will sell PS4 like hotcakes... so if that happen what will be your escuse? Ohhhhhh PS4 underperformande month after month in 2014 but at the end of year it showed true strength and I didn't expected that.
Say PS4 is underperforming in monthly sales is silly and misleading because it is still performing on pair or even better with the three best selling console already created.
