I don't see this as much to do with Xbox. The best they can hope for is moderate success in the US and honestly 50m lifetime XB1 hw sales is on the extreme high range of reality, with 35-45m much more likely. A conventional 9th gen MS console is also unlikely for very obvious reasons.
With Apple getting more dangerous to Microsoft with every year, and Google as well, it seems that the most likely way to leverage a 2B expense isn't wasting it on a dying platform, but to reinvigorate their PC gaming along with boosting their mobile platforms. I forsee a major shift in strategy as the new corporate direction takes hold. 360/PS3 are in rapid decline, and XB1 can never sell enough minecraft to recoup 2B in a million years. But spread the IP over a ton of platforms and they have a shot.
It still seems risky though. I don't know anyone that plays it for long without getting really burned out.
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