| Hapimeses said: Yes, you have a point, and I should have covered that a little more carefully. As I said, the newer 360s may be more reliable -- on the short term, at least, if not the long term -- but only time will tell if Microsoft's efforts have made a significant difference. If the new 360s are more reliable on the long term, then the failure rate for the console as a whole (for its lifetime) will drop, but the initial machines will still be hugely unreliable, and they will continue fail for the life-time of the 360. Yes, we could assume that Microsoft's engineers have got it right this time. But, then again, I would have assumed they had it right the first time around, and I would have been wrong. The same arguement you throw at me could be returned to you: Unless you have hard data to show how effective or ineffecitive MS's steps to improve the situation have been on the long term life of the console, then you have no way to predict what the total failure percentage will be for the life of the product. You state common sense says one thing, I'd argue that common sense says no such thing. Common sense seems to suggest we should be cautious, and wait to see what happens, not that we should trust Microsoft's console-building skills. Just because many hope Microsoft have resolved the issue on the long term does not mean they have. However, give it a few years; we'll all know in the end.
|
Well, I never claimed to know what the eventual percentage would be... you did. 
I still think that MS has to be making adjustments to attenuate the problem. Even if we decide not to accept the statements they have made regarding this, I think common sense *does* suggest that they're doing something to correct the situation, unless you're willing to argue that MS actuals *wants* another $1.1b charge to expenses due to failing consoles.
My guess--and it's only a guess--is that the earlier consoles had such high failure rates because MS released the platform before it was really ready, most likely so they would have a serious time lead over Wii and PS3. They got their lead, but at a significant price to them and their customers. If you're stating that MS simply doesn't now, and will likely not in the future, know how to fix the reliability problems, then I have to disagree. They rushed the first consoles to market... that is no longer the case with the current units as they've had time to re-examine the heat issues over time.
I do, however, agree that we'll all know in the end. 
