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windbane on 14 June 2007
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Bodhesatva said:
Legend11 said:
I think it's just people jumping on the bandwagon when it comes to putting down the PS3, for all we know sales could pick up dramatically for it sometime in the future. There were 120 million PS2s bought as well as ~48 million of the competition and even with overlap that's still a lot of people who haven't picked a new console and that's not even counting the unknown number of casual users that have picked up the Wii to go along with gamers from the previous generation, etc, so it's all still up for grabs.

Legend -- I first want to say that I've very much agreed with (Almost?) everything you've said thus far in this thread. 360/PS3 software development will not dry up.

With that said, this particular post seems a bit off. Not hugely off, but worth commenting on. The suggestion that "for all we know" the PS3 sales could "pick up dramatically sometime in the future," is a little unfair. Yes, that's technically possible, just as it was technically possible that the Gamecube would have sold 100 million consoles int he last year of it's lifespan, thus leading it to ultimate victory in the generation. That was possible -- just hilariously and extremely unlikely.

As others have noted, no console being outsold 2:1 (let alone 3:1, 4:1 or 5:1, as is the case for the PS3) for months at a time right out of the launch gate has ever suddenly come back and made that ground up. Not once, ever. Not even close, in fact. Does this mean it's technically impossible for the PS3 to come back? No. But your wording suggests it's very possible, if not likely; that's unrealistic. What I would say is this: it's not impossible that the PS3 will end up leading this generational cycle, but it's extremely unlikely. Again, not a case where I think you're totally wrong, but I thought it deserved revision all the same.


Your last parahraph is true, but it is also true that no console maker has sucked for 2 generations and then come back to dominate a generation.  Heck, GC finished 3rd!  Also, no hardware company had ever dominated 2 generations like Sony did.

Just because something hasn't happened doesn't mean it won't.  I think every generation has been unique and there have not been that many.  I think that's why the strategies differ so much.  I think this generation is the most up for grabs ever.  I think we've all been stuck on only 1 or 2 consoles succeeding.  We'll see, though.  I think unlike all the doomsayers over the last few months have predicted, it's not decided yet.   Or maybe it is, but I'm not sure it's easy to predict.  This fall/winter is going to be the most interesting in a long time.