The condition sine qua non for PS3 to really win is to adopt a long term strategy. PS3 started slow, so it needs a lifecycle at least long as PS2's one. If PS4 will have a newer version of Cell there will be the continuity with PS3 that lacked between PS2 and PS3 due to incomplete bc, so this will help PS4's start. And making PS3 live even 7 years will give Sony, with future price cuts, a good selling entry level machine to flank the next gen console, like PS2 is still doing now.
Obviously, like others pinpointed, BD's victory is already a big win for Sony.
OTOH, mighty Wii won't have a life as long as PS3 can have, as Nintendo will need an HD console when HD TVs will be commonplace: this won't be absolutely a problem, a quad or eight core PPC will cost in 4 or 5 years less than Xenon and Cell costed to MS and Sony this gen, and will provide to Wii2 huge power advantage on the previous one, along with the precious full bc, the only drawback for Nintendo is that unless they increase production, they'll struggle to exceed 100 million shipped over 5 years and this will give Sony the chance to reduce the gap and, once stopped Wii's production, possibly fill it by making PS3 live at least one year more than Wii.
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