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StuOhQ said:
It seems like it won't matter if the Wii U retains its lead throughout the holiday season. Seece will simply cite the numbers as being over tracked...

I guess the real wager would be: do we all think that the Xbox is going to sell 2 million more units than the Wii U does this last quarter? Results of that magnitude would be easily visible when the sales figures hit for the holidays in early January.

My personal opinion: The Xbox will outsell the Wii U eventually - the U.S. is too large of a market, and I don't see Nintendo outpacing Microsoft on American soil anytime soon. That being said, I think it's unlikely that the Xbone will move not only more units than the U, but trample it with an additional 2m sold over whatever the U sells through this fall/winter.

Even a die hard X-boxer has to admit that the Wii U's numbers have been better since Mario Kart 8, and that Smash Bros. always moves consoles - it's a game that has traditionally pulled in players from across the aisle (Sony/Microsoft customers). Add to that Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta 2, and Captain Toad launches on the horizon, plus a back-library including Mario 3D World, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Pikmin 3, and Zelda: Wind Waker HD, with Nintendoland/3D World and Nintendoland/Mario Kart bundles to boot...

In light of what's on the table, it's hard to imagine that the Wii U will sell short of last holiday season. Beyond that, we gamers tend to think of elements such as amiibo as a non-factors. Are we really going to pretend that kids (and nerdy adults, myself included) aren't going to gobble those things up? I think it's safe to assume that Nintendo will have a decent autumn and holiday season this year.

I'm going to conservatively predict 10 million Wii U's sold through Jan 1st, 2015. Even if the Wii U had steady (current level) sales into November and then only matched last years holiday numbers (with only 3D World to bank on at the time), we're still looking at over 9 million - bottom barrel, with none of Nintendo's new offerings having any impact whatsoever.

Keeping in mind that its total lifetime sales are at 5.0 million...Will the Xbone sell over 5 million additional units in the next four months?

Honest answer: No it won't.

As I stated before, I believe the Xbox one will eventually pass the Wii U in sales. Additionally, I think that may happen as early as next summer. In all honesty, though, I just don't see it happening by the end of December. If the Wii U does as well as some are predicting and doubles last year's holiday sales, bagging ~11 by Jan. 1st, then it may be even longer before the Xb1 overtakes the U.

Sales follow shipments soon after, and they will be on par end of September, let alone end of December.