Prediction: WII U Will Still be Ahead of XBOX One in 2017

[StuOhQ]

It seems like it won't matter if the Wii U retains its lead throughout the holiday season. Seece will simply cite the numbers as being over tracked...

I guess the real wager would be: do we all think that the Xbox is going to sell 2 million more units than the Wii U does this last quarter? Results of that magnitude would be easily visible when the sales figures hit for the holidays in early January.

My personal opinion: The Xbox will outsell the Wii U eventually - the U.S. is too large of a market, and I don't see Nintendo outpacing Microsoft on American soil anytime soon. That being said, I think it's unlikely that the Xbone will move not only more units than the U, but trample it with an additional 2m sold over whatever the U sells through this fall/winter.

Even a die hard X-boxer has to admit that the Wii U's numbers have been better since Mario Kart 8, and that Smash Bros. always moves consoles - it's a game that has traditionally pulled in players from across the aisle (Sony/Microsoft customers). Add to that Hyrule Warriors, Bayonetta 2, and Captain Toad launches on the horizon, plus a back-library including Mario 3D World, Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze, Pikmin 3, and Zelda: Wind Waker HD, with Nintendoland/3D World and Nintendoland/Mario Kart bundles to boot...

In light of what's on the table, it's hard to imagine that the Wii U will sell short of last holiday season. Beyond that, we gamers tend to think of elements such as amiibo as a non-factors. Are we really going to pretend that kids (and nerdy adults, myself included) aren't going to gobble those things up? I think it's safe to assume that Nintendo will have a decent autumn and holiday season this year.

I'm going to conservatively predict 10 million Wii U's sold through Jan 1st, 2015. Even if the Wii U had steady (current level) sales into November and then only matched last years holiday numbers (with only 3D World to bank on at the time), we're still looking at over 9 million - bottom barrel, with none of Nintendo's new offerings having any impact whatsoever.

Keeping in mind that its total lifetime sales are at 5.0 million...Will the Xbone sell over 5 million additional units in the next four months?

Honest answer: No it won't.

As I stated before, I believe the Xbox one will eventually pass the Wii U in sales. Additionally, I think that may happen as early as next summer. In all honesty, though, I just don't see it happening by the end of December. If the Wii U does as well as some are predicting and doubles last year's holiday sales, bagging ~11 by Jan. 1st, then it may be even longer before the Xb1 overtakes the U.