| padib said: All those games are coming out on PS4. Destiny being a sci-fi online shooter has more xbox vibe to it so odds are it will do well on that console, but meanwhile the U has smash. If MK8 was single-handedly able to double the U's baseline, I think something is severely lacking in your PoV. Or maybe you don't want SSB to do so well? It seems most of the time opinions here are based on what people want to sell well, and not on what makes sense. SSB has never sold less than 7m lifetime, even on the cube. Why would its system-selling and game-selling strength suddenly disappear now? It makes no sense to me. |
What does Wii U from now on? MK was the biggest franchise. We now have on it:
- SSB: ~10M
- Mario 3D: ~10M
- Mario 2D: ~20M?
- Zelda: ~7M
- StarFox: ~3M
- BF: ~7M
- Elder Scrolls: ~10M
- Fifa: ~5M
- Batman: ~4M
X1 will have:
- AC: ~5M
- COD: ~8M?
- Halo: ~12M
- Gears: ~7M
- GTA: ~15M
- Metal Gear: ~5M
SSB will give it a boost, but not as good as MK. X1 has all the biggest games that will come to the gen. Most people will go to the PS4, but the ones that won't will choose mainly the X1 because the games are there. People want GTA, COD, BF, Fifa and all the games they are used to. Smash sold 7M on the GC? Ok. Halo did the same on the original XBox, so we have a draw here. And that can be a stretch, because SSB is avaiable on 3DS while Halo 5 is X1 only. Zelda? It's on the same level as Gears (saleswise). Of course SSB will do well. But it's not one or two games that make a console sell, it's a library. XBox and GC had franchises with 7M+ but PS2 still crushed them. Because all the 3rd party strength was on PS2.
If you are still confident and think Wii U can hold the advantage until 2017, let's take a bet. I don't even want it to be until 2017, X1 will start 2016 ahead on LT sales. Gamers want 3rd party games + a few exclusives. No 3rd parties, no buy. X360 and PS3 had a similar value to the consumer, so we got a 50/50. PS4 presented a better value (I'm not saying it's better, I'm saying the market had this opinion created by a combination of the early price advantage and more powerful specs) so it's getting a bigger slice of the market. Let's say it gets 65/35. Right now, gamers are choosing between these two machines.
I don't think we have a real system seller. Probably Wii Sports is the closest we have for it, but still it was more like the chosen showcase for motion controls. As I said, high selling franchises didn't saved the N64, XBox or GC of its competitors. You need to have all the 3rd party games and some exclusives to make a diff and that will build your library.
