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Positivity is good, but still.

Neither the WiiU nor PS4 looks on track to beat their predecessors; I don't know what would make XB1 the exception to this.

In addition, for better or for worse, MS moneyhatted timed exclusives (and a few actual exclusives) for 360 that were known about early on in the console's life. So far, for XB1, there's nothing aside from 5pb support that I can see. That's not really indicative of them planning to beat their last console's sales.

It's going to crater. It's just a matter of just how badly it does, unfortunately.