small44 said:
atomicblue said:
People compare the PS4 to the Wii because they've been the consoles with the strongest launch periods out of each generation, and the PS4 is selling less than the Wii did.
I highly doubt the PS4 will crack 100 million unless this generation stretches on for 8-9 years. It's had a strong start, but when you compare all of the current-gen consoles to their last-gen predecessors at the same point in time, people aren't buying into this generation anywhere near as quickly as they did the last.
I did these calculations on another site about a month ago, though they're still fairly current:
PS4: 10m vs. PS3: 5m
One: 5m vs. 360: 5.5m
Wii U: 7m vs. Wii: 32m
Vita: 9m vs. PSP: 29m
3DS: 44.5-45m vs. DS: 55-60m
The PS4 is the only console tracking ahead of its direct predecessor right now. The XO and 3DS are tracking slightly behind, and the Wii U and Vita are tracking way behind. When you add everything together, it suggests people are either content with the consoles they bought last gen, or they've moved on to other devices like iPad, smart phones and even PC. The PS4 has also been riding a wave of insanely positive press whereas the PS3's reception was mostly mixed until a couple of years in; I suspect in a couple of years time, the PS4 won't be tracking so far ahead.
I think it's definitely possible that the PS4 will still go on to be this generation's best selling console (after the 3DS, anyway), but if so, I'd expect it to hit between 60-80 million. I don't think any console is likely to get much higher than that in this generation.
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Wii sold even faster then ps2 and in the end ps2 still 50 millions ahead of wii so you're argument is not valid.
Both vita and wii u had a lot worse support then psp and wii that's why there's doing horrible and x1 is doing less then x360 because a lot of x360 owner bought a ps4 instead
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For us to have another generation like the sixth (where PS2 basically carried that whole generation), we'd need a console that really tapped into some kind of essential selling point that was comparable to the PS2's DVD player (which was a HUGE deal back when the console came out). There's nothing like that in this generation, as indicated by the fact that there's not really a breakaway success, sales-wise, this generation. The 3DS has a considerable lead but its week-to-week sales are about even with PS4 now.
Couple that with my point in my previous post (this generation as a whole is not moving consoles anywhere NEAR as fast as last gen), and I doubt we'll see any console come close to 100m this generation. Not unless one console starts running ahead like crazy, at the expense of the other four. I don't see that happening.
