PS4 will probably get to around 16 Million by 1 January 2015

[freedquaker]

binary solo said:

You seem to be disagreeing with me but then you come up with the same 16-17 million range. I'm not comparing 1H and 2H I am comparing 8 months to 4 months.

I do look at the collective behaviour of the entire 7th gen because I show Wii, 360 and PS3 year 1 ratios. If all 3 ratios individually are approximately 1:1 then the ratios combined will also be about 1:1. The first full year on the market looks like it reliably has the lowest 8mo:4mo ratio because of consistent factors: price is still usually the same as launch price, game library is still very cross generational, number of games that are only on new gen consoles is relatively small, and you may have supply limitations too. All these consistent multi generation factors are at play for PS4. Wii U had cut the price in it's first full year and its ratio did not quite reach 1:1.7.  Wii U probably also had more Wii U only games on it than PS4 or Xb one will have going in to this holiday, though I haven't analysed that assumption, so I may be wrong.

 

It was an oversight on my part as to what periods you were comparing, which also explains why we come up with similar results with somewhat different assumptions. But yes, 16 million does not sound wrong, although I tend to expect a bit more on average.