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Some very pessimistic figures here...

The fact is that now GTA has gone multiplatform Gran Turismo is the single largest console exclusive there is. And GT5 has everything going for it that GT3 had, i.e. the power of a new console and a similar userbase at the point of release (maybe in fact bigger? not sure). I see this game as minimum 12 million and I won't be surprised if it equals GT3 (~15m for those that don't know). The popularity of GT5P is demonstrating that the Gran Turismo fanbase is still there.