Fire Emblem Mafia - Game Thread - Concluded

[HylianSwordsman]

Agreed, prof, the shot needs to be decided now, because it's a separate action from the lynch and thus acts like a second lynch, which means we need as much time to discuss the actual lynch as possible. Don't be stupid, give it some actual thought, but this isn't really something we can spend days on. We have two lynches today, but that also effectively halves our discussion time for each. I'd rather spend less time on the shot, because it will provide information that we can immediately discuss that will add to the lynch discussion.

While I'm certainly afraid of shooting the town doctor, Cone's death, if it isn't mafia, would give us,  in my opinion, the best lead we've had all game. If Cone flips town, White Eagle is probably lying scum, as I explained. White Eagle seems like a good bet as well, but if White Eagle flips town, then Cone being lying scum and White Eagle having a role modifier that affects accuracy seem reasonably equally likely. On the one hand, shooting Cone is the better lead, in my opinion, while on the other, shooting White Eagle removes the risk of shooting the town doctor. Either way, one of them is almost certainly scum since their claims contradict, so whichever we chose, if we chose wrong, it just means when we kill the scum we only gain half a day instead of a day.

While it's possible that both are scum, just in case only one is, and in the interest of getting the best result, I'm going to vote to use the day vig item on Cone, because we've been suspecting him for a while now and he's still alive despite claiming doctor day 1. He also has more holes in his arguments throughout the past few days, while with White Eagle, we mostly just have that he wasn't very active, and that he was overly cautious about giving us information. The only hard evidence against him is that Cone's claims contradict his, and there's an innocent explanation for that in the possibility of an inaccuracy modifier. I still think he's suspicious and that him being lying scum is more likely, but weighing the options and the evidence for each, the better case is with Cone right now.

shoot: Cone