Holy crap. This is a lot to take in. First off, I'm really pissed off that the day ended so early. I wanted to come back and reevaluate RCTjunkie, like I promised him. Instead, someone fucking kills himself, and of all people, it had to be Wright, my lowest suspect, and of course, he's town. What an epic read the end of that day was though. I like the way he plays. So mysterious, like his dancer, speaking of which, great roleplaying on his part. There was an "aha" moment when I figured him out, it was pretty epic that Smeags figured him out so early. But then of course people HAD to push him farther. Not that it's anyone's fault that he was noob enough to reveal his card, but dammit. Then of course, in the night another suspect low on my list died and confirmed town. And go figure, it was the night vig. Props to Trucks for keeping that on the down low, too bad he never had the chance to use his power because it required a lynch to work and we never fucking lynched anybody yet. Damn it. Then today, I was really worried Sparks was going to kill RCT before I even had the chance to say anything. Luckily that's not the case. So my thoughts thus far:
On RCT
I think he's innocent. Looked over the pages leading up to WoW's warning. RCT was trying really hard to comply, and it really seems like he contributed to the warning. He's almost certainly telling the truth. I'd say he could still be lying about the specifics, but as we've recently learned, his vest was stolen. I'm thinking more and more that he's fine. I can't logically prove it beyond the shadow of a doubt, but my suspicion of him has dwindled considerable. Not padib level of confirmed townie, not even outlaw level, but about where Wright and Khan were yesterday, so just about off the list entirely.
On Prof
Just wanted to leave a few thoughts on prof. First, his claim about being a vanilla townie seems like a lie to me, but I'm beginning to think it's not entirely untrue. He's either a vanilla mafia, or a powered townie. Either way he's lying, but if townie, he has a good reason to. Add to this that he's practically giving it away that he has some sort of power with hints in certain posts, I think he's a powered townie. As for his behavior, it seems to have improved today, now that he has evidence to work with. Also, looking back, most of the posts I saw as being confusing and disruptive were with whoever he was butting heads with at the time, aka either me or padib. True, it was with people suspecting him, but it seems like when he actually has a lead, he can and will follow it with good logic. His logic felt a little iffy to me yesterday with Sparks, but today, we've learned that prof was right on track yesterday, and actually figured out that Sparks knew too much about the BPV and was actually the theif (or merchant, or swapper, whatever). He's done a lot of good detective work, and without me or padib here to butt heads with, that was more clear. I've decided prof is probably townie, though not 100% dropping him off the list. He's now just below where Wright was. I don't always like how he plays, but he's good for town when he's not getting in a fight with someone. Padib, I hope you're reading this. Let's try not to fight with prof anymore, it's been the biggest distraction to town since the beginning of the game. Like we've said, we've got to work together.
On two mafia factions or another killing party:
The missing vest was literally missing, taken from RCT, not broken. It's looking like there's one mafia faction, and possibly a serial killer I guess. How do serial killers generally play? I imagine starting killing early would be a bad idea, as it would confirm the presence of a serial killer, or at least the possibility of one. If mafia starts to win, they'll figure out the serial killer very fast and off him, so the serial killer would have to more or less promote town I guess? Either way, evidence points to no second killing party, with the possibility of a serial killer.
On the current situation:
Here's what we know. Cone claims he went to Sparks last night. White Eagle claims he didn't, but it might be inaccurate. However, the language certainly seems to imply that Cone visited himself. If Cone is a mafia doctor, and there was reason to think there were vigs (now confirmed with Trucks death), then it would make sense for Cone to visit himself, especially with suspicion on him. If Cone flips town, then that strongly suggests that White Eagle was lying. Sure there's the possibility that his posts are inaccurate, but as wishy-washy as he's been with his replies, I think there's a much simpler explanation than his role having a hidden modifier that makes it inaccurate some of the time: He's lying scum. Don't forget that even after his vacation was over, he just sort of lurked, and only came out when someone voted for him, and he's been wishy-washy ever since. Honestly, even if Cone were to flip mafia, I still wouldn't drop suspicion of him, because he tried as hard as he could to not cooperate. Regardless, waiting for Smeags seems quite fair, and probably a good idea.
Alright, I think that's it for now...
Essay Pro