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HylianSwordsman said:

In scenario 2, the bus driver would almost certainly be town, since a mafia bus driver wouldn't try to stop a kill, except perhaps to protect their own from a vigilante. Also, wouldn't a person know if they'd been bussed? You'd think RCT, as honest and cooperative as he's been, would have mentioned that crucial detail.

I realize some of my considerations aren't all that likely, but you did say likelihood wasn't important here.

Thanks for your thoughts. It really is helpful.

Just about the underlined, it's unlikely.