I think late 2016/early 2017. The market is entirely different from what it was in the 6th generation. It is much less frontloaded. I think Wii U sales will reach a high point this holiday, but maintain a steady momentum for the next few years if Nintendo properly times price drops and releases (maybe something like 100k per week baseline for 2015.)
I expect the Wii U to be somewhere around 10 million at the end of 2014.
With average weekly sales of 100k, that would give 42*100k = 4.2mil excluding the last 10 weeks of sales (holiday 2015.) Then maybe another 2 - 2.5 million over the holidays (average of 200k - 250k/week.) Leaving it at ~ 16.2 - 16.7 million at the end of 2015. Then back to 70k average per week sales until holiday 2016, 70k*42 = 2.94 mil. And maybe 1.5 - 2.0 mil over holidays 2016. Bringing sales to 20.62 mil - 21.12 mil (this can be sustained by a price drop to $200 before holiday 2016.) Then maybe another 3-7 million over the rest of its lifetime depending on whether or not it is discontinued early or late 2017. Overall I am going to guess total Wii U sales to be somewhere between 25 million and 30 million.
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