Fire Emblem Mafia - Game Thread - Concluded

[HylianSwordsman]

OK, I'm back. HOLY SHIT, note to self: missing the first 24 hours of the second day phase is a BAD IDEA. For the record prof, I'm over myself now and only missed yesterday because I was exhausted after work and farm chores. It'll happen from time to time. For now, my mind is utterly blown. It's going to take me some time to process all this.

Having just read what there is so far of day 2, I'm EXTREMELY confused. I've done a lot of research on roles and stuff, but the sheer number of possibilites surrounding RCT is just mindboggling. Indeed, the sheer number of possibilities in general is pretty intense. I'm dropping suspicion on prof for now because multiple factions are now in question, there are a number of much better suspects now, and he's been helpful in finding them. Not putting him as townie, nor am I totally writing off my multi-faction theory, but for now, other things have my attention.

Thoughts on RCT:

I'd like to know what people think is the most likely of the following three possibilities, as well as if I've missed any:

1. He's town. He's telling the truth. Someone tried to kill him, and his beaststone, or laguzstone, or whatever it is, shattered, as FE weapons are known to do when used up. WoW didn't specify whether it broke or was taken, simply saying it disappeared, because he wanted to leave the possibilities open for discussion. It did indeed break. There are either two mafia factions, or a mafia and a serial killer. One good explanation why one of them might have attempted to kill an unkillable townie that was likely to be lynched was because there's a bus driver who doesn't want to reveal himself because it would help the mafia. I don't think it's a vigilante mistaking him for mafia because they wouldn't waste their shot on a bulletproof person.

2. He's town. He's telling the truth. The stone was taken. Either there's only one mafia or the second mafia chose not to kill. Most likely there's now a very powerful mafia member, or a very powerful serial killer (do serial killers ever have other powers? I feel like they should as a one man team). I'm not sure which is worse. The other possibility is that a townie took the power, with the thought that the mafia wouldn't attack RCT because he's either bulletproof or vanilla, and this way, there's also another townie who's bulletproof, thus creating an unlikely to be targeted vanilla townie and a hard to kill not vanilla townie. That last possibility seems too farfetched to be likely, but we can hope.

3. He's mafia. He's telling the truth about his role. He's the mafia equivalent of bulletproof. Someone tried to kill him or take his stone, either way, likely mafia, and likely from another faction. Only way it'd be from the same faction is if they wanted to help him seem like town, but that would sacrifice two roles (or one and a half, sort of, since it would create a vanilla mafia but would recreate the bulletproof role on the ability stealer), so I don't think so. That, or again, a townie might have taken the stone. A vigilante wouldn't waste his shot on a bulletproof person.

4. He's mafia. He's lying. I don't think town would lie. Smeag's logic is pretty good, if you ask me. Either WoW goofed or RCT goofed. That said, I'm not sure this possibility is the case. The only evidence against WoW goofing is that he's WoW and had sure better not goof because he's the mod. On the other hand, RCT doesn't seem to know FE. He wouldn't know the terms "laguz" or "beaststone" unless he either had familiarity with the franchise or it was on his card. He doesn't seem to have familiarity with the franchise. Of course, maybe he heard the terms in passing and remembered them. If he's lying, his card probably says something completely different, and he'd have to make it up on the fly, and either knows the franchise and just slipped on those terms, or doesn't know the franchise and just remember the terms beaststone and laguz from what little he's heard of it. Beaststone is the more recent term from the most recent game, so it's what he'd go to first in this scenario. When pressured, he would more likely remember Laguz than Taguel, because Taguel wasn't a term given much focus in Awakening, whereas Path of Radiance centered largely around the Laguz, and the Laguz characters were probably the most high profile aspect of the game after Ike himself. It's a stretch, but that's the best I can come up with here. I don't think RCT is lying about what his role says, especially after that warning from WoW.

At this point, I'm leaning towards RCT not lying, and am really not sure about whether he's town or mafia. I'm leaning towards him being a townie and that his stone was stolen, as horrible as that possibility sounds. I know prof thinks Sparks stole the stone, but I don't get his logic there and after having just read this I can't be bothered to reread the whole day.

Thoughts on Cone:

This is something I really didn't see coming, as I had Cone down as town doctor for sure, but prof brought up a point I'd never have considered. Bodyguard and Doctor create and unkillable combo that breaks the game. There's no WAY WoW would put them on the same side. Either Cone isn't a doctor, or Cone isn't town. Cone's comments triggered WoW's warning, so I think Cone is a doctor. I'm not voting Cone yet, but mostly because I'm just in shock that there's suddenly a chance that he's not town. Spurge, Wright, and Khan were some of my big suspects simply because they voted for Cone, but spurge is innocent, and now I'm not so sure about Khan or Wright. Perhaps they were right to think he seemed fishy. They were also big suspects for my second mafia theory, so now I just don't know what to think anymore.

Bottom line, it really seems like Cone is a mafia doctor, which I didn't think could be a thing, but I'm too afraid to lynch a town doctor and screw us all to actually vote for Cone.

Also, who did Cone try to save? I missed that.

Thoughts on everyone that participated in the padib experiment:

Padib's power, on a town side, is pretty useless, as it prevents the town from a potentially useful flip and neutralizes the town's one major weapon. However, the way padib used it, by revealing the power and getting people to vote someone else, encourages both town and mafia not to vote for the target, thus not preventing the flip or disabling the town's power, and instead had a very good use: if used correctly and competently to protect a townie from a flip and not a mafia, it could have multiple uses, since the power doesn't expire unless it actually prevents a lynch. So it could be used again and again to stop mafia from teaming up for a mislynch because, and again this assumes padib uses it correctly, both town and mafia benefit from changing their votes here, but if mafia keep teaming up, padib also said he can change the target, so he could block mafia mislynches until the town agreed on something he thought was sensible.

So there's three possibilities I see here:
1. Everyone or mostly everyone in the experiment is mafia that wanted to neutralize his power
2. Everyone involved in the experiment made a horrible decision
3. Everyone wanted to neutralize padib's power because despite it's potential use, they think padib isn't competent enough to make good use of it.

1 and 3 seem equally likely to me, so at this point I don't actively suspect anyone for this, but I also am not putting anyone in this experiment down as town.