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1. Please tell me how many copies Rise of a Tomb Raider will sell in early/mid 2016 when it launches on PS4
2. Please tell me how many copies Rise of a Tomb Raider will sell in late 2015 launching against Uncharted 4
3. If 2 is greater than 1, please tell me what kickbacks or outright cash SE received for this deal.
4. If 1 is greater than 2, then you lose.

Moral of the story... who knows, who cares. I haven't read the Polygon article but SE made a great deal for themselves.