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Even though the entire Polygon article is based on bad math, poor logic and a truckload of assumptions, I do actually think Square Enix will come out of the deal ahead.
They will still sell what they were going to sell on XBox, but will avoid direct confrontation with Uncharted. By postponing the release, they will still sell a decent amount on PS, and will receive additional cash (upfront).
It's only confusing why MS would do this. They have very little to gain with this timed exclusivity, they will definitely lose money. And have indirectly increased sales of Uncharted by removing its competition from the equation.