I think the fundamental problem is trying to decide whether or not consoles would do worse if companies didn't money hat, and I think the answer is yes. I can't argue what affect Bayo 2 will have on Wii U, or Tomb Raider on XBone. You gotta admit though, with every exclusive game announced at least the potential of interest in the system increases while before there may have been little to no interest in a console.
What it boils down to is trying to money hat the game with the biggest install base or to money hat a game that can be made cheaply so the company still maintains a profit. This brings in a perspective you did not cover in your theory of a money hatted games purpose, to end a gen in profitability and not just winning a gen entirely. I don't think any console company has ever money hatted a game and thought they would win a gen by releasing it.
Also, I think Final Fantasy helped out Sony way more than Sony helped Final Fantasy. I mention it because you put it in the "Does money hatting help third party devs" section and it was really the exact opposite. It was the right game at the right time, like Wii Sports was for the Wii. It could have released on literally any system and the system would have taken off. Sony was just lucky enough to have it.
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