How much will Rise of the Tomb Raider sell?

[vivster]

ICStats said:

vivster said:

ICStats said:

I'll say 500K to 750K. Could be more if bundled.

Tomb Raider (2013) sales
1.71M on XB360 with userbase of ~80M.
0.17M on XB1 with userbase of ~5M.

Attach rate 2 to 3%.  Boost a little for exclusivity + marketing.

You're forgetting a few things. First that the demographic of the 80 million 360s(of which 20 million probably aren't even used anymore) is a lot different than the demographic of the X1. The percentage of core gamers on X1 is significantly higher. The game still sold bad because a lot of these core gamers already played it on 360.

So it's really hard to go off these numbers. The only thing you can say for sure is that there exist at least 1.5 million TR fans on the Xbox side. How many of those will have an XX1 by the time it's released? No clue. But taking attach rates that are skewed for both console probably isn't the best approach.

Yeah I'm open to being off, but I tried to make a logical conclusion instead of pulling something out of thin air.

By the time the title is released, I think less than 20% of XB360 owners will have an XB1 - so trivially speaking 20% of 1.5 million is ~300K.  Likewise a 2.5% attach rate on say, 15M user base at the time is just 375K.

Since as you say, the attach rates are skewed, and accounting for special marketing and other things - I doubled that.  Still I think those who think it will sell over 2 Million are on some good crack.

Of course they are. Square Enix are always on something when doing games or business.