For this year only it's hard to guess because we don't know for sure if Smash will enjoy this year's US Black Friday sales. If it doesn't, then Halo will win this year. Smash will beat Halo outside the US though regardless. Lifetime should easily be Smash's. Smash is a whole new high-profile release while Halo is 'just' a legacy collection, so it shouldn't have the legs of a real Halo 5.
Personally I'm also not so convinced that the 3DS version of Smash will take that much sales away from the WiiU version. It's still 'just' a handheld game, while Smash will remain primarily a console franchise and the WiiU version will have higher value in the eyes of the consumer. The huge difference in install-base though should guarantee an easy win in the first couple of weeks for the 3DS Smash, but I think lifetime the WiiU version (assuming the system will get to at least 20m) will still convincingly win.
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