2014 End Sales Estimates, more convincing than ever

[freedquaker]

Landguy said:

freedquaker said:

 

I did study this, although not thoroughly. It's true that the surges of X360 is far higher than PS3 but it is not because of X360 vs PS3, but mostly because of "US vs rest of the world". (Region specific, not console specific). Basically those surges often happen in the English speaking world where X360 dominated. Well, not this generation.... PS4 seems to be leading at least by a 55-45% margin, so most of those surges favoring Xbox are gone.

If you go back to those other years, the PS3 was outselling the 360 in the early months of the year by the same margins that you have mentioned.  True, the 360 did have a better market position in the US before.  I think that the US market is starting to stabalise for the XB1 and like I said, M$ will do whatever it takes to bring the US market back to atleast parity if not in favor of the XB1.

I would think that the english speaking concept is true.  That only falls in line with what I am saying.  The big increases match with the large amount of big shooter titles that come out at the end of each year.  Because the XB1 has a console exclusive shooter coming out this holiday season, it will entice people to go that route.  Heck, we have seen a number of people talking about picking up the XB1 this holiday even though they already have the PS4 just to get it.  With Battlefield being pushed to next year, that is one less reason to go with the PS4 - even though it was not console exclusive.  Every console exclusive title gains more traction when the 3rd party titles move to a leter date.

I will say it again, the PS4 should still outsell the XB1 worldwide this holiday season by a long shot.  But, in the US, November and December could be 50/50 or even move to the XB1 ide of things.

Not that I disagree with any of that, let's do a little bit of math, and keep it (a little overly) simple. Let's say the English speaking world makes up 50% of the world console market (which is roughly true, this gen so far US makes up 47% of all 8th gen console sales), and also assume that the holiday period surges are exclusive to that English speaking regions (50%). Additionally I will assume X360 and PS3 sold at equal quantities.

Assumptions :

1) non-English speaking countries' surges are more evenly distributed
2) English speaking world takes up 50% of the world console market share
3) The quantities sold double from first half to second half on average
4) X360 and PS3 sold at equal quantities
5) Market Shares are rounded to 60%-40% in English speaking world, and 40%-60% in non-English ones

In the earlier gen, X360 had a roughly 60% share versus the 40% of PS3. Let's say the surge gives an extra 50% boost (on top of the usual 50% boost everywhere). The surges between 2 halves are distributed more evenly in the non-English world compared to English speaking ones. Basically this is what happened in the 7th generation:

7th generation annual sales fluctuations (on average, in percentages)

X360
English : 60 surges to 120 => total 180 (60%), DOUBLES
n-English : 48 surges to 72 => total 120 (40%), 50% INCREASE
1st half sales :  60 + 48 = 108
2nd half sales :  120 + 72 = 192
Increase factor : 1.78x (+78%)

PS3
English : 40 surges to 80 => total 120 (40%), DOUBLES
n-English : 72 surges to 108 => total 180 (60%), 50% INCREASE
1st half sales :  40 + 72 = 112
2nd half sales :  80 + 108 = 188
Increase factor : 1.68x (+68%)

Now, let's repeat the same scenario with due market share adjustments (in 8th gen)

Assumptions
1, 2, 3) The same as above
4) Quantities at this stage are irrelevant, dealing with percentages
5) Market Shares are rounded to 40%-60% in English speaking world (favoring PS4), and 25%-75% in non-English ones

8th generation annual sales fluctuations (on average, in percentages)

XB1
English : 40 surges to 80 => total 120 (61%), DOUBLES
n-English : 30 surges to 45 => total 75 (39%), 50% INCREASE
1st half sales :  40 + 30 = 70
2nd half sales :  80 + 45 = 125
Increase factor : 1.79x (+79%)

PS4
English : 60 surges to 120 => total 180 (44%), DOUBLES
n-English : 90 surges to 135 => total 225 (56%), 50% INCREASE
1st half sales :  60 + 90 = 150
2nd half sales :  120 + 135 = 255
Increase factor : 1.70x (+70%)

Comparison of Increase factors
X360 : 1.78
PS3 : 1.68
XB1 : 1.79
PS4 : 1.70

Seems like the increase factors are virtually unchanged but the gap between PS4 and XB1 has slightly decreased. As long as Xbox leans more on the US side of the equation, the increase factor will benefit them relatively more . So in the main analysis, the expected values for PS4 may be a bit lower (more in lines with the original estimate, instead of shift up), and a bit higher for the XB1 (but still within the given range).