2014 End Sales Estimates, more convincing than ever

[Landguy]

freedquaker said:

DerNebel said:

Landguy said:

I don't think that you studied the yearly surge that M$ sees in the November and December period.  IF you have applied the same increase percentage to both the PS4 and the XB1, your data will be probably wrong.  Historically, the 360 sales increased higher at christmas than the PS3 did by a decent margin.  In almost every year, the PS3 outsold the 360 all year long and that was washed out by the 360's increase in sales at the holidays.  M$ breaks the bank at the end of the year to get market/mindshare.

With that in mind, I am not saying the PS4 won't outsell the XB1 handily, but I am saying that the market share percentage won't be as wide as it is today.

That was because the 360 was way more popular than the PS3 in the US, you can't really expect the same kind of holiday increases that we saw for the 360 and PS3 now for the X1 and PS4.

I did study this, although not thoroughly. It's true that the surges of X360 is far higher than PS3 but it is not because of X360 vs PS3, but mostly because of "US vs rest of the world". (Region specific, not console specific). Basically those surges often happen in the English speaking world where X360 dominated. Well, not this generation.... PS4 seems to be leading at least by a 55-45% margin, so most of those surges favoring Xbox are gone.

If you go back to those other years, the PS3 was outselling the 360 in the early months of the year by the same margins that you have mentioned.  True, the 360 did have a better market position in the US before.  I think that the US market is starting to stabalise for the XB1 and like I said, M$ will do whatever it takes to bring the US market back to atleast parity if not in favor of the XB1.

I would think that the english speaking concept is true.  That only falls in line with what I am saying.  The big increases match with the large amount of big shooter titles that come out at the end of each year.  Because the XB1 has a console exclusive shooter coming out this holiday season, it will entice people to go that route.  Heck, we have seen a number of people talking about picking up the XB1 this holiday even though they already have the PS4 just to get it.  With Battlefield being pushed to next year, that is one less reason to go with the PS4 - even though it was not console exclusive.  Every console exclusive title gains more traction when the 3rd party titles move to a leter date.

I will say it again, the PS4 should still outsell the XB1 worldwide this holiday season by a long shot.  But, in the US, November and December could be 50/50 or even move to the XB1 ide of things.