2014 End Sales Estimates, more convincing than ever

[prinz_valium]

Landguy said:

freedquaker said:

 

Note : I have no intention to spam or whatsoever, I am just trying to avoid typing the same thing again on another thread, but here you go, my reply:

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2014 First half ps4-xb1 & ps4/xb4 market share are as follows:

Cumulative : 63.7% - 36.3%,  PS4 / XB1 = 1.76

Annual : 69.5% - 30.5%, PS4 / XB1 = 2.28

There is nothing that in the statistics that suggests XB1's share will rise further. It has gone down considerably since last year, and the only thing that stops it from going further is the price cut.

Market share of XB1 (between XB1 and PS4 only) in the first half of 2014

Cumulative : Decreased from 41.0% to 36.3%

2014 only : Decreased from 36.6% to 30.5%

Also the current annual 30.5%, which is smaller than the cumulative 36.3% suggests that the market share will keep decreasing below 36.6%, albeit the price decrease may reverse it a bit. So yes, 30-33% range is VERY LIKELY.

I don't think that you studied the yearly surge that M$ sees in the November and December period.  IF you have applied the same increase percentage to both the PS4 and the XB1, your data will be probably wrong.  Historically, the 360 sales increased higher at christmas than the PS3 did by a decent margin.  In almost every year, the PS3 outsold the 360 all year long and that was washed out by the 360's increase in sales at the holidays.  M$ breaks the bank at the end of the year to get market/mindshare.

With that in mind, I am not saying the PS4 won't outsell the XB1 handily, but I am saying that the market share percentage won't be as wide as it is today.

yes ur right

 

x360

october-november

2006: 147,66%

2007: 34,38%

2008: 119,44%

2009: 157,74%

2010: 195,62%

2011: 212,85%

2012: 213,25%

2013: 205,50%

average 160,81%

 

november - december

2006: 141,62%

2007: 109,96%

2008: 90,16%

2009: 64,11%

2010: 82,33%

2011: 48,73%

2012: 28,62%

2013: 31,03%

average: 74,57%

 

 

ps3

october - november:

2007: 80,71%

2008: 73,28%

2009: 82,01%

2010: 87,47%

2011: 91,34%

2012: 100,67%

2013: 87,56%

average: 86,15%

 

november - december

2007: 143,46%

2008: 105,14%

2009: 102,18%

2010: 102,94%

2011: 82,56%

2012: 50,80%

2013: 48,37%

average: 90,78%