2014 End Sales Estimates, more convincing than ever

[prinz_valium]

freedquaker said:

prinz_valium said:

freedquaker said:

You can see the more detailed original analysis here:
http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=178341&page=1

However, In addition to all that, quick analysis between the first and last halves of each between 2007 and 2012 inclusive for PS3 and X360 showed an almost exact doubling of sales in the second half of the year compared to the first, though with a variance. The jump was smallest in 2008 with +83% while largest in 2009 with 125%.

So this means, based on historical data, the combined XB1 and PS4 sales are likely to increase between 83% to 125% from 6.1 (4.2 + 1.9) in the first half of 2014 to a figure between 11.2 and 13.7 combined, reaching up to total of a figure between 17.3 to 19.8 million annually.

Based on the current trend, around 67-70% of those sales will belong to PS4, and the rest to XB1, while individual figures are as follows...

current trend doesnt include tier 2 countrys for xbox 1.

until they sell zero units there and the rest of the world stay the same, this figure has to decrease...

if they sell some units there, the rest of the world has to increase for the ps4 marketshare to stay at 67-70% for ps4

 

 

Note : I have no intention to spam or whatsoever, I am just trying to avoid typing the same thing again on another thread, but here you go, my reply:

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2014 First half ps4-xb1 & ps4/xb4 market share are as follows:

Cumulative : 63.7% - 36.3%,  PS4 / XB1 = 1.76

Annual : 69.5% - 30.5%, PS4 / XB1 = 2.28

There is nothing that in the statistics that suggests XB1's share will rise further. It has gone down considerably since last year, and the only thing that stops it from going further is the price cut.

Market share of XB1 (between XB1 and PS4 only) in the first half of 2014

Cumulative : Decreased from 41.0% to 36.3%

2014 only : Decreased from 36.6% to 30.5%

Also the current annual 30.5%, which is smaller than the cumulative 36.3% suggests that the market share will keep decreasing below 36.6%, albeit the price decrease may reverse it a bit. So yes, 30-33% range is VERY LIKELY.

xbox 1 will release in china ps4 dont

frontloaded tier2 sales will come for xbox 1 in the second half of 2014, while frontloaded tier1 sales  (both ps4 and xbox one) already included in frist half of 2014.

 

and as u can see the xbox1 dropping  marke share from cumulative to annual, inital realse sales are very important (at least in the very beginning of an generation)

it wont be big, becaus these countries arent the biggest markets, but they matter. even only  2,5% of 20m are half a million consoles.

just do the math again in oktober and we will see if something has changed.

 

 

edit: but maybe the ps4 destiny and white console bump will be to big and negate all of the tier 2 inital sales