lets say Destiny pushes a ton of consoles.... maybe the PS4 does 1 million in September, add another 400k for Aug and we will be looking at 10.5-10.8 mil beginning in October (when sales start to increase), now lets say it sells 800k in October (200k a week seems doable for that month), we would be at 11.5 mil starting Nov.
I think it can get close to a million BF week, and maybe average 250k the other weeks, so 1.7 to 2 mil. So best case scenario we are at 13.5 mil in Dec. The PS4 would need to sell 3.5 mil in 3.5 weeks to do it.
I think it sells over a million the last full week before CMAS, at 500k for the week of CMAS and leading into new years (Cmas Eve, Gift card purchases and such). I think it can pull MAYBE 1.6 mil in those 2 weeks combined. So we are at 15.1 without counting 1st 2 weeks of Dec.
If BF is as big as I predicted I expect a little supply issues the next week, so maybe 450k, then around 800k the next.
So in my high end prediction (but fairly realistic) 16-16.5 mil is doable. I dont see where the other 500k come from, but it is Definity doable if there is stock and destiny delivers.
End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)
Wii- 72 million 3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases
360- 37 million Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak
PS3- 29 million Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut
