XB1 has a poor baseline, which will be painfully re revealed in July NPD results. The high attach rate so far won't hold up as the install base slowly expands. The reason is what all of these threads conveniently ignore : X1 was massively front loaded. When you isolate 2014 numbers they are over 40% behind in the US, by far their strongest market. And the reasons are clear : the 360 was a smashing success in the US (contrary to BS, PS3 never closed any gap in the US), and that bred a very dedicated core fanbase. Microsoft overestimated the size of the loyal core just as Sony did with the PS2 gen. The extreme Sony fans who bought PS3 early for $500+ are the same types of people who bought X1 for $500, who would buy a cardboard box with a logo on it and still claim it was the best thing ever just due to the brand. As Sony learned with PS2 to PS3, and MS is learning with 360 to X1, there aren't enough of these brand zombies to make a mass success in the US. If I'm correct, July will show a return to ~30kish/week for X1 or so, and August will be similar. September will see the gap grow well over 1M, and at this point the die is pretty well cast. X1 has no chance at catching up, their best hope is to not become a niche player. Unlike ps3, there are no foreign markets to fall back on. Europe is a lost cause, UK is a tiny market with a split, Japan is dead to home consoles, and the rest of the list isn't going to help either. It's up to them to claw to 35m lifetime, or wither at 25m or less.
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