Anything can happen, but Consistency is Key.

[Nicklesbe]

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

fighter said:

Dr.Henry_Killinger said:

fighter said:

Now you may be thinking, but Henry, if the last two months can outsell the rest of the year, then doesn't that prove that a short burst of sales can make up for the sales of the rest of the year?

On the contrary, it means that the sales in the Holiday period are mediated by the performance during the longer Else period, in other words, the consistent performance of the Else Period matters just as much as the holidays. 

I don't disagree with the general point, but OP is hardly making a logical demonstration, especially with this unfounded "on the contrary"

How is it unfounded? The worse the performance in the first 10 months, the better the performance must be in the holidays to make up for it. Its basic arithmetic. In simpler terms if you get C at the end of the year which is A(Else) + B(Holiday). The smaller A gets, the bigger B must be just to maintain C, let alone increase it.

that is not what you wrote

1) if the last two months can outsell the rest of the year = a short burst of sales can make up for the sales of the rest of the year

vs "on the contrary"

2) if the last two months can outsell the rest of the year = the sales in the Holiday period are mediated by the performance during the longer Else period

 

1) is not contrary to 2)

The issue is in the conclusions, the first one suggests that sales before the holiday period don't matter because the holiday sales good aka "Anything Can Happen". The second conclusion says the same thing but focuses on the total of the year aka "Consistency is Key". The second conclusion is in the contrary to the first one because it has a different connotation, a negative one, i.e you need good sales year round to benefit from the boost, vs the conclusion posed prior, a postive one, i.e the boost makes up for the rest of the year so bad sales don't matter.

Basically what I said but you said it better. In short a long steady burn followed by a big bang is always better than and is the contrary of a short burst following an inconsistant and shallow burn.