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I'll go with 200k.

The Ps4 is already taking would be XB1 gamers away from MS. The last of Us is a big sell for anyone that has a 360, missed out on TLoU on the PS3 and wants to buy a next gen console. If they are already leaning towards the PS4, the last of us will be that final push. For such gamers, it would be a brand new IP.

It probably wouldnt be higher than 175k though..... but 200k looks cooler.