I might have thought it was possible before Mario Kart came out and we had that amazing Nintendo dominated E3, but now I don't think 20-40 million is that far-fetched anymore.
1) As others have pointed out, the PS3 and 360 also started slow.
2) PS4 and One are both going to be stuck in multiplatform hell, and exclusives are going to be far between. PS4's big games this year afterall is a remaster of a game that came out a year ago.... If this becomes a pattern, I think people's opinions of the console will drop sharply.
3) Nintendo's downsides are pretty much overhyped... When people give it an honest chance, they have pretty much universally given it praise. I think as the gen goes on, we're going to see Nintendo cleaning up a lot of these misconceptions and that will naturally increase sales.
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