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archbrix on 24 July 2014
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Zekkyou said:
Smeags said:
Let's assume that the Wii stops selling today. No more units sold.

The PS3 is 18,100,000 units behind the Wii (according to VGC).

So for the PS3 to catch the Wii...

it would need to sell 174,038 units a week for 2 years to catch up.
it would need to sell 116,025 units a week for 3 years to catch up.
it would need to sell 87,019 units a week for 4 years to catch up.

The PS3 is currently selling at half that last number (44,781) which would make it almost 8 years for PS3 to catch the Wii.

I'm going to say no.

I can't see the PS3 managing it (i'm guessing 95m absolute max, more likely around 90m), but using its current sales as a reference isn't the right way of going about it. Not only are we in the summer, but the PS3 is still priced at $230 for the absolute cheapest model (12GB Super Slim). That's pretty damn expensive when your 7 years younger successor launched at $400 (500GB).

The holidays + a major price cut could generate months of summer sales in a single week. It's those kind of things we need to consider when predicting the chances of it passing the Wii, not its sales during the worst time of year with an unreasonable price tag.

It really doesn't matter in the PS3's case.

First off, the BOM will only allow the console's price to drop so far.  Spending money toward a smaller nm process to get costs down seems counterproductive at this point.  I don't know if we'll ever see a $149 PS3 and I'd certainly bet against $129.

Secondly, the 7th gen lasted longer than any gen before it.  Now that the 8th gen is in full swing, last gen is dropping like a rock.  There's only so much interest left and what there is has to be split to some degree with the 360.  Unlike its predecessor, the PS3 doesn't have that kind of after-gen selling power.

The only possible hope is in emerging markets, but I really don't see 10m+ of the console's install base coming from this demographic.

It'll reach 90m, maybe a bit more, but 100m just isn't in the cards, IMO.