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mai on 23 July 2014
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mai said:

So given existing information my suggestion would be Buk despite the fact there're some reasonable evidences against that theory. My bet would be Ukrainian Buk, because there's no proofs that rebels have operational Buk -- only one non-operational missile launcher that is not sufficient to effictively hit Boeing even if it was operational, while Ukrainians did have plenty of operational Buks on place and their radars were confirmed to be working on the day, hour and minute Boeing has crashed.

That's not a proof, but if I'd have to choose, that'd be my answer. New information might change my opinion.

So continuing  your theory, do you think the Ukrainian military intentionally or accidentally fired at a civillian airliner?  Like I said before, it being an accident seems unlikely because the rebels don't have an airforce.  So why would the Ukrainian military be shooting at anything.

If it was intentional, what was their motive?  Was it to frame the rebels?   This begins to sound ver conspiracy-esque.  You honestly don't think its more plausible that it was a mistake made by the rebels.  With Buk provided by Russia?

 

Also more Colbert on the issue.  http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/guests/julia-ioffe/1872w0/julia-ioffe

If Su-25 shot it down -- most likely intentional (question about motives goes to Washington, I hope nobody needs confirmation that everyhting happening in Ukraine is a proxy war and Kiev by itself is not a descision maker), if Buk -- either way is possibility.

Of course, Buk provided by Russia is a possibility, but I'm basing my assumptions on information that I have, not inventing anything, otherwise we could suggest a lot of possibilities including very wild ones, while your questions was about what I consider the most probable judging from infro we have now. Russian MD didn't share info on active Kupol radars on rebels territory. Of course, they could have lied, but if the idea was to frame Ukraine, better lie it was Su-27, not Su-25. While US DoS refuses to provide any kind of intel. At this point in time I don't have any information about Buks being used by rebels nor consider handing smth like this to them a very probable scenario,  a) since its at the very least 4 tracked vehicles, missing smth like that is equivalent if missing elephant in the room; 2) providing Buk to rebels effectively means providing crew for it as well since unprepared crew won't be able to operate it.