PDF said:
So what do you believe is most likely? If you think it was the Ukrain military wouldn't you agree it seems unlikely for it to be a mistake. The rebels dont have an airforce, so why would they be firing at anything? |
1) If given information is right and Su-25 is the only military aircraft that was around; 2) if this indeed was Su-25 (its correct indentification was considered only as probable), whatever Su-25 was doing there it wasn't an aircraft that shot Boeing down.
Even though previously I'm absolutely ruled out possibility of Su-25 hitting Boeing, on the very same briefing it was stated that temporarly it could climb higher that its sustained ceiling, making it closer to Boeing than I previously thought. So I stand corrected and theoretically this is a possibility. Nevertheless a) it doesn't have a radar since its CAS aircraft; b) R-60 AAM that Su-25 could indeed fire is mostly for pilot's self-assurance it has countermeasures against bigger birds than anything else, reasons see in a); c) hitting aerial target with unguided missiles is a gamble and stakes would be against Su-25; d) hitting it with a gun is possible, but Boeing seems to be completely obliterated in the midair, so I wouldn't bet on the gun.
So given existing information my suggestion would be Buk despite the fact there're some reasonable evidences against that theory. My bet would be Ukrainian Buk, because there's no proofs that rebels have operational Buk -- only one non-operational missile launcher that is not sufficient to effictively hit Boeing even if it was operational, while Ukrainians did have plenty of operational Buks on place and their radars were confirmed to be working on the day, hour and minute Boeing has crashed.
That's not a proof, but if I'd have to choose, that'd be my answer. New information might change my opinion.
