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bevochan on 21 July 2014
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vivster said:

Don't forget about Dragon Age, Mirror's Edge and that other new Bioware thingy.
Also I heard that SW:TOR is still doing quite well.

EA was beasting with new IPs last gen. I think they can do the same this gen.


Dragon Age will probably do well for a RPG, but it won't be huge.  Maybe 5 million across all platforms.  DA Origins did about 2.5 million on xbox360 and 1.5 million on ps3.  DA2 bombed.  

However, I'm not sure about Mirror's Edge.  I know there are some Mirror's Edge fanatics out there, but this game wasn't good.  It had some good ideas and game mechanics (stuff like running on walls and jump/grabbing up ledges seemed new at that time in 1st person view but these game mechanics are in many fps games now), but overall, the game was mediocre.  It sold about 1.1 million on both xbox360 and ps3.  Yes, the fanatics will buy the game, but I doubt this game will grow and attract new gamers unless this game is extraordinary on another level.

 

As for Titanfall vs Destiny:  

Destiny PS4 will outsell Titanfall Xbox1.  Currently, Titanfall xbox1 is just a tad below 2 million, so it'll probably end up around 3.5 million lifetime  (1.5 million lifetime on xbox360).  

However, I think Destiny PS4 will open at least at 2 million sold in the 1st week.  Currently, it's about 500k pre-orders for North America alone.  It should get to around 700-800k for pre-orders and open about 1.2-1.3 million 1st week sale in North America.  Then double that for rest of the world, so that should be 2.4 million for the 1st week for the PS4 version alone.  Unless this game is an absolute disappointment, this game should have somewhat good legs and get to about at least 7 million lifetime on PS4.  I expect the xbox1 version to sell about 1.5 million globally in the 1st week.  Probably about a million for ps3 and xbox360 each in the 1st week.   

As stated before, 3rd party exclusive are a bad idea, and Titanfall is a great example.  Exclusivity probably halved the total expected sales for Titanfall.  It could have sold an additional 3-4 million for PS4/PS3 which is about another (4million * $60) $240 million of revenue.  MS got a good deal for getting Titanfall exclusive to Xbox1, but Respawn probably didn't get $240 million to cover for the loss of sales.  

If you are going to do an exclusivity deal, it should be with PS4 for perks like DLC but the games needs to be released across all platforms.  Games like Watch Dog and Destiny are great examples.